Sustainable technologies group Johnson Matthey notes in its latest 'PGM Market Report' that platinum demand will exceed supply again this year on the back of firm industrial use and constrained mine supply, while ruthenium and iridium are also expected to be in deficit amid rising demand from the data storage and energy transition sectors.

Palladium and rhodium are, however, likely to record small surpluses in supply this year.

The report states that all the platinum group metals (PGMs) recorded supply deficits this year, with the three autocatalyst PGMs – platinum, palladium and rhodium – recording deficits on the back of weak supply.

"Autocatalyst recycling has been slow to recover from a downturn during 2023/24, while primary supply from South Africa and North America has been eroded by rationalisation and mine closures," Johnson Matthey points out.

At the same time, it adds, industrial demand has been robust, especially in the petrochemicals and electronics sectors, while the production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles remained resilient, although there was some metal substitution, thrifting and model mix impacts.

Platinum recorded a deficit of 951 000 oz in 2025, a widening on the deficit of 559 000 oz recorded in 2024. The deficit for this year is estimated at 317 000 oz.

Palladium recorded a deficit of 416 000 oz for 2025, compared with a deficit of 218 000 oz the year before. It is estimated to move into a surplus of 214 000 oz this year.

Rhodium recorded a deficit of 50 000 oz in 2025, compared with a deficit of 9 000 oz in 2024, but is expected to move into a surplus of 15 000 oz this year.

Johnson Matthey states that the near-term outlook for PGM demand is uncertain owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, unresolved questions over US trade policy and increasing resource nationalism.

"Our forecast shows demand for all the PGMs except iridium contracting in 2026. Lower global output of ICE vehicles will hit automotive PGM use, while jewellery and investment demand could also weaken this year. Ruthenium chemicals demand will fall, but industrial PGM consumption will otherwise be broadly stable, albeit with some downside risk due to disruption to petrochemical shipments.

"Mine production is expected to drop, especially in Russia, but double-digit growth in autocatalyst recycling will boost secondary supplies," it notes.

Johnson Matthey says it expects modest decline in South Africa's PGM supplies for this year, on the back of a smaller benefit from the release of work-in-progress than in the prior two years, as well as a limited contraction in underlying mine production volumes.

PGM supplies from Russia are expected to contract sharply this year, as Norilsk Nickel's output is likely to be lower owing to changes in the mining mix at its operations.

Further, platinum supplies from North America are expected to increase slightly, but palladium supply is likely to fall as Canada's Lac dee Iles mine nears the end of its life.