Analysis from global law firm White & Case shows that mining merger and acquisition (M&A) transaction activity recorded its fastest start to a year since 2023 in terms of both transaction volumes and aggregate deal value, despite the breakdown in talks between Glencore and Rio Tinto.

The data taken from White & Case’s M&A Explorer shows that there were 121 M&A deals in the first quarter of this year, an increase from 117 in the first quarter of 2025 and 102 in the first quarter of 2024.

The aggregate value of transactions in the first quarter of this year totalled $21.6-billion, compared with $16.1-billion in the first quarter of 2025 and $13.9-billion in the first quarter of 2024 – an increase of $5.5-billion (34%) and $7.7-billion (55%), respectively.

The data follows White & Case analysis that found that the aggregate value of global mining M&A activity totalled $93.7-billion in the 2025 financial year, marking the highest yearly total in 13 years.

While deal activity has dropped back from the peaks seen in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, the law firm says the outlook for mining M&A remains positive, with structural drivers, such as the growing demand for critical minerals that support the clean energy transition, expected to support activity.

“The increase in mining M&A to its highest level in three years reflects a shift in capital toward assets that underpin resilient supply chains for critical minerals.

“In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape, deal activity is focused on assets that can deliver reliable, long‑term supply of strategically important materials within stable operating and regulatory environments,” says White & Case global head of mining and metals Rebecca Campbell.

White & Case says M&A decisions are increasingly shaped by jurisdictional certainty, supply continuity and alignment with national priorities, reflecting the growing strategic and economic importance of the mining sector as a whole, and especially critical minerals.

Research from White & Case’s ‘Mining and Metals Survey 2026’ shows that the formation of strategic partnerships (32%) is expected to be the most likely type of transactional activity this year, a trend already evident in first-quarter M&A activity.

This trend is illustrated by White & Case’s work for Serra Verde Group. Serra Verde is a large-scale producer of rare earth elements (REEs) and the only large-scale producer outside Asia of all four critical magnetic REEs.

White & Case initially helped Serva Verde obtain $565-million financing from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the proceeds of which are being used for a complete debottlenecking and expansion project of Serra Verde’s rare earths mine in Brazil.

White & Case has also subsequently represented Serra Verde on its about $2.8-billion combination with USA Rare Earth (USAR) to create a global leader spanning rare earth elements, oxides, metals and magnets.

The law firm says Serra Verde's mining and processing operations will play a central role in the establishment of the first mine-to-magnet rare earth supply chain outside Asia by combining with USAR's mining and downstream capabilities.

“Our work for Serra Verde reflects what we are seeing across the sector globally. Mining projects of long‑term importance are increasingly being advanced through strategic partnerships rather than traditional ownership structures.

“Additionally, government support is playing a more active role alongside private capital, reinforcing these partnerships as a credible route for delivering complex projects,” says White & Case partner Thomas Pate.

The firm adds that there is also potential for continued consolidation in the gold market, with the gold price remaining high on the back of continued geopolitical uncertainty.

The highest proportion of respondents from the White & Case survey (29%) predict that precious metals and gold are most likely to experience consolidation in the next 12 months, followed by critical minerals (27%).