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REAL MOONSHOT
REAL MOONSHOT
17th April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
INCLEMENT: Few would argue that the world has entered a most treacherous period. Besides the deadly hot wars that are leaving thousands dead and wounded and infrastructure in ruins, domestic politics just about everywhere has turned beyond ugly. Once tariffs, rising inequality, the active manipulation of information, the threat posed by unregulated AI to the labour market, and climate denialism are also taken into account, the risk of a perfect geopolitical storm feels all too real.
INCLEMENT:
10th April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
EXTREME HIKES: South Africa is far away geographically from the war that has disrupted shipping through the key oil and gas chokepoint between Iran and Oman known as the Strait of Hormuz. Yet the affordability consequences are being felt closely by every South African. Much attention will now be given to how the fuel hikes spill over into the rest of the economy and how the monetary authorities respond to these inflationary pressures.
EXTREME HIKES:
3rd April 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
GETTING TOUGH: Many customers will be scrambling to switch off lights and appliances after the regulator granted Eskom hikes for this year that are higher than those that were initially approved, owing to a big calculation error by the regulator. But customers in municipalities that owe the utility money now face being cut off entirely, as Eskom moves more assertively to tackle arrear debt that has now breached R110-billion. An initial 14 municipalities have received notices.
GETTING TOUGH:
27th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
WARS OF DISTRACTION: The world has entered a dangerous new era where the globe’s superpower is ignoring legal guardrails put in place since the Second World War to engage in military ‘excursions’. When the ‘process is the punishment’, conflicts are not based on imminent threats, risks to human rights, or international security. But rather on a desire to weaken enemies, entrench hegemony, and as a tool of political distraction.
WARS OF DISTRACTION
20th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
GROWTH FOUNDATIONS: The foundations for South African growth, infrastructure, have been severely weakened over the past decade and a bit. Not only has too little been spent on maintenance and expansion, what has been invested has been spent inefficiently or lost to corruption. There are signs in the 2026 Budget of a possible turning point being reached in the composition of spending. Much will hinge, however, on the quality of implementation, as well as on bringing in new private funding and expertise.
GROWTH FOUNDATIONS
13th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
UNDER PRESSURE: While manufacturing has been under pressure in South Africa for more than a decade, the squeeze is now on across various key subsectors. Besides the closure of minerals processing capacity, including in ferroalloys and steel, the outlook for the flagship automotive industry is also worrying. It is nevertheless far from clear whether South Africa can afford the industrial and trade policy remedies being proposed.
UNDER PRESSURE:
6th March 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
TRANSMISSION TUSSLE: Organised business won a major victory when President Cyril Ramaphosa intervened to roll back an Eskom unbundling plan approved by the Department of Electricity and Energy in December. In his State of the Nation Address, he said the new State-owned Transmission System Operator must own the grid assets, which Eskom wanted retained by a subsidiary, and set a three-month deadline for coming up with a solution.
AT ODDS:
20th February 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
There is no question that tariffs are very much back in vogue, courtesy of US President Donald Trump. South Africa, too, is looking to tariffs to shore up industries that are under extreme pressure. However, tariffs are a blunt instrument and the implementation of higher tariffs is not cost-free, especially for hard-pressed consumers.
BLUNT INSTRUMENT
13th February 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
FEELING BULLISH: The gold bulls are definitely having their day. The upward price trend has been in place since late 2022 and there are no signs yet of a reversal. This, despite the fact that the precious metal has already broken all previous records. The only pity for South Africa is that the country is far from the leading producer it once was.
FEELING BULLISH
6th February 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
BRATTISH: Active moves by President Donald Trump to exclude South Africa from the G20 gathering in Miami might not rank at the top of recent outrageous actions by the US leader, including his vulgar gesture to an auto worker who heckled him during a plant visit. However, viewed alongside his brattish letter to Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, blaming Norway for his failure to receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, it is suggestive of yet more brutishness to come, especially if such bullying continues to be tolerated.
BRATTISH
30th January 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
PRESSURE COOKER: The list of trouble spots around the globe that carry the potential for dragging the world into war is growing. Worryingly, this also comes at a time when the international and institutional guardrails that were put in place with the specific purpose of preventing wars are being severely weakened.
PRESSURE COOKER:
23rd January 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
TO-DO LIST
TO-DO LIST
16th January 2026 By: Darlene Creamer
GETTING OLD: The shadow created by the ‘flood the zone’ strategy implemented when President Donald Trump took office in late January extended across the world and was highly unsettling, especially on the trade front. However, as 2025 comes to an end, there are signs that the world is tiring of the hyperbole, distraction and tantrums. Perhaps the pushback in relation to Trump’s unilateral and unbalanced ‘peace plan’ for Ukraine and Russia will be the start of a more assertive diplomatic response in 2026.
GETTING OLD
12th December 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
CONFIDENCE BOOST: The success of the G20 against the backdrop of well-founded scepticism about whether a decaying Johannesburg could pull off its host-city status was not only a relief but also a confidence booster. Put together with the impressive performances of our national cricket, football and rugby teams, 2025 is ending with something of a bang rather than the whimpers that have characterised far too many recent years.
CONFIDENCE BOOST
5th December 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
BLUE LIES
BLUE LIES
28th November 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
SCRAP CONTINUES: The fight over South Africa’s scrap metal policy is set to continue. Following a review, the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa, or Itac, made only modest changes, lowering the discount to be offered to domestic ferrous scrap consumers from 30% to 25%. The seller is still responsible for delivery costs and the 20% export tax remains. Both metal recyclers and ArcelorMittal South Africa have objected and are demanding another review.
SCRAP CONTINUES
21st November 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
WEAK LINK: The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) is being called upon to make some increasingly complex regulatory calls as the country steadily shifts towards a more open and competitive industry structure. There is growing concern, however, about Nersa’s capacity to make decisions that will be supportive of the transition. Recent court cases and settlements have brought to the fore the problems at the regulator and have also highlighted the urgent need for its capabilities and its capacity to be beefed up.
WEAK LINK
14th November 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
THE B WORD: The world economy is on a roller-coaster ride that includes sharp and unpredictable tariff twists, gut-dropping geopolitical dips and violent turns. Yet the stock markets have floated above the fray, buoyed by optimism over the effect Artificial Intelligence could have on productivity and innovation. More recently, though, the word “bubble” has entered the vocabulary, as some commentators warn of a correction and others of a possible crash.
THE B WORD
7th November 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
RED CARPET TREATMENT: There are definite signs across Johannesburg that the struggling city aims to put its best foot forward when hosting the G20 Leaders’ Summit, and related meetings, during November. Most of the spring cleaning is linked to the city’s main corridors, with some serious road maintenance under way. The picture will quickly change, however, should any world leader stray from those carefully manicured routes and into Joburg’s potholed, waterless and traffic-light-defective suburbs and townships.
RED CARPET TREATMENT
31st October 2025 By: Darlene Creamer
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