In 2020 @WorldBankGroup estimated that thanks to energy transition and digital technology supply chains, by year 2050 demand for certain minerals would grow by up to 500%. Further that, to meet this demand, up to US$500 billion of investment in new mining projects would be required by 2040. To ensure that the rest of the mineral value chain has absorptive capacity, the Bank also estimated a cumulative investment of US$1.7 trillion by 2050 in mining, processing plants, and related infrastructure.  Mineral Production to Soar as Demand for Clean Energy Increases

Not surprisingly governments, investors, operators and suppliers have taken note, and many are repositioning themselves to profit from the unprecedent market growth. While in some respect the global mining ecosystem remains the same, in many ways that world is also changing dramatically. In this article I take a birdseye view of historical and emerging trends. I highlight current industry footprint upstream and midstream of the industry value chain and observable impacts of the international race for security of mineral supply.                                                                                                                                                   

A review of reports on the location of mineral processing and metal fabrication plants shows that Asia and the far east dominates. Quoting a report by the Brookings, GBR reports that by significant margins, China’s leadership position in processing is unparalleled. The reports shows that nearly 60% of lithium, 65% of cobalt, and close to 90% of REE are processed in China. The history behind Chinese dominance is multi-dimensional. Among others, Chinese authorities adopted a long term view of the country’s industrialization policy. In addition, unlike most western governments, Chinese policymakers did not shy from adverse environmental impacts associated  with REE. In part due to advocacy groups, western governments heeded the call for environmental protection. By contrast, China not only did not have the same pressures but welcomed the opportunity to become the world’s factory. Simultaneously, the country invested hugely in related technology and skills. On the other hand, the country’s horizontally and vertically integrated industrial base means that China’s manufacturing ecosystem has large economies of scale leading to competitive cost structures. Hence China’s ability to secure offtake agreements and investment in manufacturing from foreign companies that profit form low costs. The resulting commercial imperatives are simply hard to beat at manufacturing and ultimately consumer end. For instance, CNN reports that up to 90% of Apples’ iPhones are made in China making the product competitive in the US and other markets. Here’s when iPhones may get more expensive | CNN Business

The above factor adds a twist to global trade competition for security of supply because, while China’s dominance in the processing and supply of certain critical minerals may lead to a trade imbalance between China and other sovereigns, at corporate level China’s low cost base benefits many companies in the digital, clean energy, auto and other industries worldwide. Speaking of technology, in a technology driven mineral value chain, the link between innovation and market competitiveness is increasing in importance. Here too China has an advantage and means to protect the country’s position of advantage as illustrated by a law passed in 2023. The law prohibits export of any REE processing technology developed in China such that the technology may only be deployed inland. China bans export of rare earths processing tech over national security | Reuters

But there are other parts of the mineral value chain on the global market in which China is not a leading player. In mining a major contributor to the pipeline of supply of minerals are projects discovered by junior minors. The projects are both risky and costly. Some of the most active financiers are Australia and Canada thanks to robust stock markets including the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), London’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM), and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). But Chinese investments in greenfield projects outside China are few and far between. Instead Chinese investors appear to prefer to acquire brownfields and/or partner with SOEs over existing mines rather than risk greenfield projects. While this does not auger well for countries wishing to attract investment in mineral exploration, it lowers risk for Chinese investors while potentially enabling Chinese investors to secure supply and grow portfolio of assets quicker than would otherwise be the case.  Chinese Investment in Mineral Resources. A good example is the acquisition of equity by China’s Chinalco in Guinea’s Simandou iron ore and infrastructure projects. In response, some of China’s sovereign competitors are taking equity positions in critical mineral project in-country and abroad. Western governments launch financing network for critical minerals | Global Trade Review (GTR)

One constant factor relates to the disconnect between Africa’s mineral potential and investment attracted into mineral exploration relative to other jurisdictions. Underexplored and Undervalued: Addressing Africa’s Mineral Exploration Gap The logical question is why does this matter? The first reason is the trade and economic merits of leveraging projected demand for the minerals.  The second is the call by Africa’s own leaders to increase beneficiation and value addition. One would expect regional governments to focus on increasing Africa’s share of global exploration expenditure leading to potential increase in the pipeline of projects and mineral supply as one of the foundations for a groundswell of industrialization. Otherwise the region risks progressive decline in production due to aging assets and therefore a reduction in prospects for attracting higher levels investments in beneficiation. Either way, the immediate and long term opportunity costs are high and open the door to potential diminishing returns based on progressive drop in mineral output. This policy ineffectiveness undermines the regional leaders’ ambition to profit from demand for critical minerals. In the words of South Africa’s Minister of Mines, Mr. Mantashe on the eve of the 2026 Mining Indaba,  ‘there is no mining without exploration’ and in the end its boils down to ‘Africa’s leadership’

Change is Inevitable- Although many aspects of the structure of the global mining industry remain unchanged, the are also some noteworthy changes.

Mineral Investments By Gulf States

Gulf States have increased investment in critical minerals in and outside their domain. Strategies include increase in exploration expenditure, taking equity positions in existing projects and tapping extensive knowledge of the petroleum sector. For instance, in 2023, Saudi Arabia pledged millions towards exploration. Breaking oil dependency: Saudi Arabia unveils $182 million incentive programme for mineral exploration - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). In the same year, the country announced a partnership between the SWF, the Kingdom’s gold mining company Maaden and Brazil’s Vale Vale announces completion of strategic partnership agreement with Manara Minerals - Vale . Having ranked number 104 in attractiveness to investors in 2013, the Saudi Kingdom has earned recognition for its policy reforms and ranked 10th in the same category by 2025 according to the Frasers Institute Annual Mining Report.  Fraser Institute Annual Survey of Mining Companies, 2025. Following decades of regulating, investing and operating protects in the petroleum industry, the Gulf region has the advantage of knowledge of geosciences, project execution, commodity trading and processing.  Not surprisingly, Saudi Aramco has established a Transition Minerals Division aimed at operating at the intersection of petroleum and mineral resources to increased prospects for faster discoveries of critical minerals associated with oilfields but hitherto not deemed economically feasible.  Aramco Transition Minerals: Supporting the Kingdom’s Role in a More Sustainable Energy Future – Society of Petroleum Engineers. The United Arab Emirates have also made attempts to acquire assets including copper and lithium in Zambia and Zimbabwe respectively. This will undoubtedly impact global partnerships, sources of project finance, create new markets for minerals and diversify sources of supply.

State Equity

Until recently, direct investment in mineral projects and processing plants by industrialized countries was rare. However, in a bid to secure supply governments in the global north are taking equity positions in mining projects and/or funding domestic companies. Recently, Canada, Germany, the UK and the United States, have either invested directly or supported domestic companies acquire assets, develop brownfields or build processing plants in-country. This departs from traditional ideology as relates to the role of the State in the private sector and instead leans towards what has been dubbed ‘resource nationalism’. The underlying justification being trade competitiveness, global and national security. Recently, the UK and US competed for import of REE from Angola with the latter prevailing. Saltend: Major UK rare earths refinery scrapped in favour of US One of the key players in the US is  the Development Finance Corporation mandated to strengthen national security by mobilizing private capital around the world. Infrastructure and Critical Minerals | DFC. But this might just be the start because, on February 22, 2026, the US also announced the creation of a US$12 billion fund aimed at supporting the creation of a stockpile of critical materials by industrial users. Dubbed ‘Project Vault’, the facility will be funded from US$10 billion of export-import bank financing and an additional US$2 billion of financing from the private sector. According to a NYTimes, like petroleum reserves maintained for defense purposes, the stockpile of critical minerals is essential for American industries.  Trump Unveils $12 Billion Critical Minerals Stockpile - The New York Times. This is more evidence of evolving strategic imperatives based on a sense of urgency to secure supply of critical minerals by industrialized countries.

Seabed Mining

Possible commencement of collection of polymetallic nodules on the seabed is potentially the most consequential industry development in recent times. The first such project will likely be a result of a January 2025 Executive Order issued by the US President in which he ordered National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Agency responsible to receive, assess and if deemed appropriate license collection of polymetallic nodules from the seabed. Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources – The White House. All be it with different outcomes, China, Norway and Orman have also taken steps towards future licensing seabed mining. No doubt future technological innovations, minerals discoveries, investments and alliances will continue to alter the structure of upstream and midstream mining. However, given the long term nature of demand for energy transition critical minerals, where the world ends 50 years from now is anyone’s guess. But the first through the goalpost rule is likely to underpin competition at investor, corporate and sovereign levels.