UK-based global long-term bankable power price forecaster Aurora Energy Research has released its first-ever long-term prediction for the South African power market, in anticipation of the expected launch next year of the South African Wholesale Electricity Market.

Aurora foresaw a profound transformation of the country’s power sector between 2027 and 2060, with demand predicted to grow at an annual rate of 1.3% over that period. Commercial and residential demand would offset stagnant industrial demand.

Also over this period, more than 30 GW of ageing coal-fired generating capacity would be retired. The combination of demand growth and the decommissioning of old power plants would mean that South Africa would need more than 120 GW of new generating capacity by 2060.

Most of this would come from solar PV and offshore wind farms.

The share of electricity generated by these two forms of renewable energy would increase from 23% next year to 88% by 2060, even though the phasing out of coal-fired generation would be slower than originally planned.

Energy storage technologies, diesel and gas generation and new combined-cycle gas turbines were expected to cover demand peaks and periods of low renewables generation. Together, these technologies were forecast to provide 7% of total generation capacity by 2060.

“The market fundamentally changes shape,” summarised Aurora MD UK, Ireland and Africa Dan Monzani. “Coal phases out and renewables reach 85% to 90% of generation. Average prices rise into the 2050s, but the real story is a widening distribution, with far more high-price hours and far more zero-price hours.”

Aurora expected prices for baseload power to increase, running up to 2050, because of rising demand, increasing commodity prices and the slow phasing out of power sector exemptions from carbon tax. Consequently, capture prices for solar PV and offshore wind power were predicted to increase by more than 100% between now and 2060.

This was a “clear signal” to investors and developers, affirmed the forecaster. Investors faced a changing environment, in which the share of private generation was continually accelerating, and which presented both opportunities and risks.

“Volatility is the opportunity,” he highlighted. “Understanding these risks, where your exposure sits, and how you structure around cannibalisation, curtailment and balancing is what will separate the winners from the losers in this market.”