Iran conflict and spinoff effects are keeping coal prices higher
Energy prices, including coal, have been increasing on the back of intensifying geopolitical risk in the Middle East since the end of February.
Research agency BMI reports Newcastle thermal coal prices have risen by 23% between February 27 and March 31, closing at $142/t.
As of April 10, thermal coal was trading at $139/t and coking coal at $235/t, compared with the 2025 average prices of $106/t and $192/t, respectively.
The agency says higher natural gas prices are particularly encouraging for coal exporters given an upswing in fuel switching activity from gas to coal in key Asian markets. Thermal coal is currently benefiting from global energy price turmoil owing to its relatively low-cost ability to provide baseload power, BMI states.
BMI revised upwards its 2026 Newcastle thermal coal price forecast to $115/t from $100/t previously for the year.
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