The discussion on the future of South Africa’s domestic oil refinery fleet is a long and complicated one. It has naturally flared again because of the security of supply concerns associated with recent disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

This has brought to the fore how little domestic crude refining capacity actually remains in place, with only Natref and the Astron refinery still operational in a fleet that, at one point, had a nameplate of over 700 000 bl/d when the coal- and gas-to-liquids refineries are included.

Both the Sapref (180 000 bl/d) and Engen (135 000 bl/d) refineries in KwaZulu-Natal are closed, dramatically reducing the crude refining footprint, while the gas-to-liquids refinery in Mossel Bay (45 000 bl/d) is mothballed, owing to a failure to secure a new gas resource. Sasol’s coal-to-liquids refinery, which has a nameplate of about 150 000 bl/d, continues to produce fuel, but environmental pressures will grow as gas supply from Mozambique tapers.

Hence, the immediate security-of-supply issue is not the level of strategic crude stocks, but the reliability and source of final product and whether South Africa has adequate storage buffers in place for periods of disruption. This, given that domestic sources are only able to meet about one-third of demand.

Assurances have been given, but a public that has lived through electricity loadshedding and now regular water cuts remains sceptical.

The recent supply threats have, thus, reignited calls from some for domestic refining capacity to be expanded and modernised. Such calls are to be expected, but tend to gloss over the reasons why such investments have failed to materialise in the past, as well as whether such projects are the best strategic option for affordable security of supply and energy sovereignty.

Many of these debates have been regularly canvassed, with the answers from proponents of new refining capacity having failed to move the fiscal authorities, whose consent will be required, as such a move hinges on taxpayer support. Even arguments in favour of the incentives needed for refineries to introduce cleaner fuels were rejected, notwithstanding an energy policy that is officially supportive of sustaining and cleaning domestic refining capacity.

This raises the real issue, which is the confused state of the country’s energy policy. South Africa still does not have a clear energy vision, which means that its actions are typically reactive and, at times, contradictory.

It has not answered the question about energy sovereignty and what this implies in an era that will be increasingly defined by the electrification of energy services, including mobility, and where the cheapest form of new electricity arises from solar and wind rather than coal.

How should South Africa play to its resources strengths in such a world? And how can it do so in a way that is growth- and job-supportive and fully alive to the fact that geopolitical instability is now the new normal?

It’s surely time to become serious in answering these questions.