Investment demand for platinum is expected to be “extremely robust” in 2026.

“We’ve not only got the attractiveness in terms of platinum’s underlying supply demand fundamentals, but we also have a very uncertain macro-political environment, and that’s creating strong demand for all of the precious metals as a store of value,” World Platinum Investment Council research director Edward Sterck emphasised to Engineering News & Mining Weekly in a Zoom interview, following the release on March 4 of the latest Platinum Quarterly and full year 2025 update, with a revised forecast for 2026.

Bar and coin demand is set to reach a six-year high in 2026 at a time when above-ground platinum stocks have depleted to just over four months’ worth of global demand.

Persisting tight market conditions are pointing to considerable value volatility and price action.

“I think that platinum as an investment is a very good place to be positioned right now,” Sterck highlighted.

Engineering News & Mining Weekly: What are the key factors contributing to the platinum market deficit of more than one-million ounces in 2025 and the fourth consecutive deficit for the end of 2026. Why has the forecast gone from balance to deficit since your November market update?

Sterck: The key change between our November update and today is really investment. So, fundamentally, for 2025 we’ve moved from a deficit of a little over 650 000 oz to a deficit of over a million ounces. That’s primarily due to higher exchange traded fund (ETF) demand and due to the exchange stocks in the US remaining at elevated levels and not seeing the outflows that we were anticipating previously. Looking through into 2026, many of the themes that occurred last year are continuing. Again, it’s stronger or more robust ETF investment demand. We’re not, at the moment, projecting higher ETF demand, but we’re just anticipating that we’ll see less in the way of profit taking than we’d forecast before and we’re also expecting those exchange stock holdings to remain stickier in the US on a continuation of trade tensions. So, effectively, the quarter of a million-ounce deficit we’re expecting for 2026 versus the balance market we were anticipating previously, that’s mainly just reflecting on that sort of stronger and more robust investment demand environment.

What is the outlook for mine supply in 2026 and what is fuelling the growth in recycling supply?

Broadly speaking, we’re expecting mining supplies to remain effectively flat. We’ve got much higher prices. The basket price is substantially elevated from where we started 2025 but these are deep-level underground mines for the most part, and so inherently inflexible. Whilst I’m sure the miners may wish in an ideal environment to be able to flex output to capitalise upon that improved profitability, you just can’t do it that quickly. It’s just a function of geology and geotechnics, and so output will remain broadly flat, and is likely to remain that way for a number of years to come. In terms of recycling supply, that’s more price elastic. Effectively, if you think about the catalytic converters you find on an average vehicle, it’s usually two to three within any exhaust system. Yet the PGM metals are not evenly distributed amongst those catalytic converters. One of them is typically more highly loaded than the others, and so those other ones, in times of low prices, are not necessarily economic to recycle and recover the metals from. With higher prices, however, they are economic, and so we’re expecting more of that supply to come through the system.

What are the key areas of demand forecast for 2026?

Well, it’s a small change on our previous estimates, but I think thematically, it’s quite impactful. If you look at automotive demand, we’ve upgraded that by 15 000 oz, which is fairly small in the context of a demand segment that’s almost three-million ounces. But that upgrade is on the fact that we’ve seen a number of policy changes around the world – in Europe and in the US in particular – that have pushed back or slowed down the pace of anticipated electrification. That means more internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, predominantly hybrids, which is obviously best for the environment, but therefore it also means higher-for-longer PGM demand. The two other areas I’d focus on for 2026 are jewellery, which we are expecting to be slightly weaker versus 2025, and investment demand. Jewellery is the most price elastic area of demand. We’ve obviously got substantially higher prices, and so we’re expecting slightly softer jewellery demand. I would note, however, that platinum has a bit of an advantage versus, say, gold, for example, where it’s got greater relative exposure to the bridal market and also to the gemset market, where you’re using platinum to hold gemstones, and those are a bit more defensive in periods of higher prices or economic uncertainty. Then investment demand is expected to be extremely robust this year. We’ve got not only the attractiveness in terms of platinum’s underlying supply demand fundamentals, but we also have a very uncertain macro-political environment, and that is creating strong demand for all of the precious metals as a store of value.